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KMID : 0371019960290010027
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Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
1996 Volume.29 No. 1 p.27 ~ p.42
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Scientific rationale and applicability of dose-reponse models for environmental carcinogens
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Shin Dong-Chun
Chung Yong
Kim Jong-Man
Lee Sung-Im
Hwang Man-Sik
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Abstract
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This study described methods ´-to ` predict human health risk associated with exposure to environmental carcinogens using animal bioassay data. Also, biological´ assumption for various dose-response models were reviewed. To illustrate the process of risk estimate using relevant dose-response models such as Log-normal, Mantel-Bryan, Weibull and Multistage model, we used four animal carcinogenesis bioassy data of chloroform and chloroform concentrations of tap water measured in large cities of Korea from 1987 to 1995.
As a result, in the case of using average concentration in exposure data and 95% upper bond unit risk of Multistge model, excess cancer risk(RISK I) was about 1.0 x 10-6, in the case of using probability distribution of cumulative exposure data and unit risks, those risks(RISK 11) which were simulated by Monte-Carlo analysis were about 2.4 x 10fi and 7.9 x 10-5 at 50 and 95 percentile, respectively. Therefore risk´ estimated by Monte-Carlo analysis using probability distribution of input variables may be more conservative.
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KEYWORD
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environmental carcinogens, dose-response model, chloroform, excess cancer risk, Monte Carlo analysis
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